Economy / Peru
If you would like to subscribe to Emerging Markets Monitor and gain instant access to this article, please click here to subscribe.
If you would like to take a trial to Emerging Markets Monitor please click on the trial link below.
Politics Reigns For Now
March 2006 | Currency ForecastSorry, you must be a subscriber to view this article in full. If you are a subscriber please login.
If you would like to subscribe to Emerging Markets Monitor and gain instant access to this article, please click here to subscribe.
If you would like to take a trial to Emerging Markets Monitor please click on the trial link below.
Short term movements are being dictated by the flow of opinion polls about the imminent presidential election on April 9. Ollanta Humala appears to have recaptured the lead, and there is a clear risk that the populist will take office and capital flight will ensue - with a sol slide to as weak as PEN3.6500/US$ not beyond the realms of possibility. That said, we think that this candidate's rhetoric will not be fulfilled on office, due to congressional fragmentation, and that the worst case scenario will involve a lack of forward movement on the reform front, as opposed to a