Economy / Zambia
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Copper Declines To Rein In Kwacha Gains
June 2008 | Currency ForecastSorry, you must be a subscriber to view this article in full. If you are a subscriber please login.
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The primary risks are to the upside. The government has a more optimistic forecast for copper output growth, targeting 1mn tonnes of refined copper per year by 2011, above our 2011 forecast of 807,000 tonnes. Should this target be achieved, export receipts and Zambia's forex supply would be higher, potentially leading to faster currency appreciation. At the same time, disruptions to the global copper supply, or higher than expected economic growth and, consequently, copper demand, from the US, the EU or especially from China in 2009 could drive the price of copper to new highs, also leading to kwacha