Political Risk Analysis - Failing National Dialogue Leaves South Sudan With Few Options - 24 JULY 2017


BMI View: The failure of opposition factions to participate in South Sudan ' s government-led National Dialogue will leave few options for renewed implementation of the 2015 peace deal. Going forward, we note that the possibility of foreign intervention in the peace process is increasing , but this is unlikely to act as a panacea, suggesting that the country is set to remain highly fractured and unstable .

The National Dialogue conference announced by President Salva Kiir Mayardit as an attempt to lead South Sudan back on the path to implementation of the 2015 peace deal is likely to see limited progress owing to the disengagement of the country's main rebel group. Over the past four years, the governing Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) and its military wing, the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA), which are dominated by the country's largest ethnic group, the Dinka, has engaged in increasingly bitter bouts of fighting with the Nuer ethnic group-dominated opposition Sudan People's Liberation Movement In Opposition (SPLM-IO) and a number of other rebel groups. Levels of violence have reached close to those seen in 2013-15, when the country was officially in a state of civil war. The next general election is meant to be held in July 2018, but if the poll does occur, it is highly unlikely to secure a strong democratic mandate or resolve the state or unrest. Going forward, we see some potential for increased foreign intervention in the conflict given rising international concern about the situation. That said, the increasingly inward-looking policy agenda in a number of the major developed economies (not least the US and UK) suggests substantially increased assistance to resolve the situation may be off the cards. As such, South Sudan continues to have the weakest score of any country globally in our Short Term Political Risk Index, scoring 19.4 out of 100.

Peace Deal Effectually Inactive, National Dialogue Likely To Fail

Widespread Violence Leads To Weakest Score Worldwide
South Sudan - Short Term Political Risk Index, Score Out Of 100
Source: BMI

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